France can boost its growth by 0.2% and create 66 000 jobs by 2030, including in the car industry.
The smart deployment of low-carbon car technologies would allow a reduction of French spending on oil imports of €5.9 bln per year in 2030. The transition to mobility fuelled by a growing share of electricity, for example from renewable sources, and hydrogen produced locally would bring important economic benefits for France.
These are the main conclusions from a new study "En route pour un transport durable" published today and conducted by a group of French and European entreprises and NGOs. The technical analysis has been conducted by Element Energy and Artelys and the economic modelling by Cambridge Econometrics.
Key findings :
- Total annualised cost of mitigation technologies across French light duty vehicle fleet in 2030: €6.1 bln (this spending is of course a revenue for the automotive value chain)
- Total reduction in annual energy costs across French light duty vehicle fleet in 2030: €12.4 bln. (€591 per motorist per year (if energy taxation approach unchanged. Based on IEA oil price projections))
- Annual reduction in French spending on oil imports in 2030: €5.9 bln
- Reduction in annual revenues for the French refining sector: €470 mln
- Increase in annual revenues for French producers of electricity and hydrogen: €3.1 bln
- Net employment impact: 66,000 – 71,000 net additional jobs in 2030 (split 50/50 between automotive value chain and wider economy), (the range represents different approaches to handling the tax shortfall that results from lower tax revenues on fossil fuels)
- Reduction in CO2 in 2030 (vs 2015): 40%
- Reduction in Nox in 2030 (vs 2015): 72%
- Reduction in particulate matter in 2030 (vs 2015): 92%
- Annualised cost of reinforcing French electricity distribution network to allow EV integration: €150 mln in 2030 in dumb charging scenario, or €10 mln in smart charging scenario (cost of smart charging infrastructure = €90 mln)
- Annualised potential benefits from EV integration in French electricity grid in 2030: €240 mln (from short-term reserve, response and avoided curtailment)
- Maximum number of e-drive vehicles that can be deployed without increasing demand for generating capacity: 4 million in 2030 (>20 million with smart charging)
The full technical report can also be downloaded as a PDF here.
The technical report on electric vehicles and synergies with the electricity system can also be downloaded as a pdf here.
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